The next London Mayoral election will be held on 2 May 2024.
As of 9 November 2023 Sadiq Khan held a 25 point lead over conservative candidate Susan Hall, according to a YouGov poll. Anything could of course happen between now and 2 May though, the greatest risk for Khan possibly being if Jeremy Corbyn stands as an independent candidate and splits the labour vote. The deadline for candidate nominations is 27 March so I suspect we will see increasing levels of speculation in the meantime…
To his left, Mr Corbyn. To his right, Mr Gove.
As part of the flurry of DLUHC announcements on 19 December 2023 (see my blog post that day, In DLUHC Jubilo: NPPF & Much More), the Secretary of State wrote to Mr Khan. The letter included the following passage:
“Due to the significant shortfall in housing supply and under delivery of housing in our capital, I have concluded that it may be necessary to take further action now, as a matter of urgency, to make sure London is delivering the homes our capital needs.
With this in mind, I have asked Christopher Katkowski KC to lead a panel of expert advisers comprising Cllr James Jamieson, Paul Monaghan, and Dr Wei Yang, to consider the aspects of your London Plan which could be preventing thousands of homes being brought forward, with a particular focus on brownfield sites in the heart of our capital. I have asked them to produce their report by January and will make sure that it is shared with you.
If you cannot do what is needed to deliver the homes that London needs, I will.”
The terms of reference given to the advisors were published on 22 December 2023. Lichfields have been appointed along with the advisors previously announced.
“The expert advisers will assess whether there are specific changes to London Plan policies that could facilitate urban brownfield regeneration in London for housing delivery in an appropriate manner and, if necessary, recommend changes to the London Plan accordingly.
The output of the review will be a short report, delivered by 15 January 2024, to the Secretary of State.”
The objectives of the work are as follows:
“To consider and, if appropriate, make recommendations for specific changes to the London Plan. The Secretary of State will share the recommendations with the Mayor to consider their implementation.
To work with Lichfields consultants to ensure that there is an evidence base which supports the recommendations of the expert advisers.
To complete a report on how, specifically, the London Plan could be improved to facilitate the delivery of new homes on brownfield sites.”
15 January! It will be interesting to see what emerges. I assume that aside from the implications of the detailed and prescriptive approach taken by the London Plan – a document which is instead meant to operate only at a strategic level – one potential area for investigation will be the extent to which the Mayor’s rigid approach to minimum levels of affordable housing, even in the face of agreed unviability, and/or his requirements as to review mechanisms which can cause difficulties with funders, is holding back delivery (although of course the Mayor’s response is always to point to the level of need for social housing). Will another be the Mayor’s resistance to development in the green belt? But this would only make sense in the context of Mr Gove’s letter if the focus is on previously developed land in the green belt – and even this would uncomfortably with the Government’s 19 December 2023 revision to the NPPF, absolving authorities of the need to review green belt boundaries when preparing local plans…
Are there possibly any clues in two recent Secretary of State decisions?
On 11 December 2023 the Secretary of State overturned inspector Jennifer Vyse’s recommendation and granted planning permission in relation to called-in applications for mixed use development at Homebase and Tesco Osterley, Syon Lane, Hounslow. His approach to the planning balance and overall conclusion in his decision letter is as follows:
“64. For the reasons given above, the Secretary of State considers that the application is not in accordance with LonP policies D9 and HC1 and LP policies CC3 and CC4 of the development plan, and is not in accordance with the development plan overall. He has gone on to consider whether there are material considerations which indicate that the proposal should be determined other than in line with the development plan.
65. Weighing in favour of the proposal is the regeneration of under-utilised brownfield land which carries substantial weight. Also weighing in favour is the delivery of up to 2,150 homes which carries substantial weight, and the delivery of 750 affordable homes designed to meet the current housing need profile in Hounslow, which each carry substantial weight. Economic benefits carry significant weight whilst the provision of open space and significant biodiversity net gain both carry moderate weight. Highway and transport improvements carry limited to moderate weight and the reprovision of an existing Tesco store and the provision of community space each carry limited weight.
66. Weighing against the proposal is less than substantial harm to a number of designated heritage assets which carries great weight. Moderate harm to the character and appearance of the area in relation to the Homebase scheme carries moderate weight. Heritage harm caused by the total loss of a non-designated heritage asset (the Homebase store) carries limited weight and the Secretary of State has considered paragraph 203 of the Framework in coming to this decision.
67. In line with the heritage balance set out at paragraph 202 of the Framework, the Secretary of State has considered whether the identified less than substantial harm to the significance of each designated heritage asset is outweighed by the public benefits of the proposal. Taking into the account the public benefits of the proposal as identified in this decision letter, the Secretary of State agrees with the Inspector at IR15.11 that the public benefits of the appeal scheme are more than sufficient to outweigh the identified harm, including cumulative harm, to the significance of the designated heritage assets. He considers that the balancing exercise under paragraph 202 of the Framework is therefore favourable to the proposal.
68. Overall, in applying s.38(6) of the PCPA 2004, the Secretary of State considers that despite the conflict with the development plan, the material considerations in this case indicate that permission should be granted.
69. The Secretary of State therefore concludes that planning permission should be granted.”
Note the weight placed on delivery of homes, including affordable homes, on under-utilised brownfield land, together with economic benefits, versus heritage harm.
On 4 December 2023 the Secretary of State agreed with his inspector’s recommendation and granted planning permission for the demolition of existing buildings and the comprehensive phased redevelopment of the site for a mix of uses including up to 1,049 residential units and up to 1,200 square metres of flexible commercial and community floorspace in buildings ranging from 3 to 18 storeys along with car and cycle parking, landscaping and associated works. His decision letter demonstrates a similar balancing exercise, in the additional context of Barnet Council not having a five year supply of housing land:
“35. Weighing in favour of the proposal is the delivery of market and affordable housing which each carry significant weight; the reduction in traffic, provision of open space, biodiversity improvements, regeneration benefits and employment provisions which each carry moderate weight; and improvement in healthcare facilities which carries minimal weight.
36. Weighing against the proposal is the less than substantial harm to the designated heritage asset which carries great weight.
37. In line with the heritage balance set out at paragraph 202 of the Framework, the Secretary of State has considered whether the identified less than substantial harm to the significance of the designated heritage asset is outweighed by the public benefits of the proposal. Taking into the account the public benefits of the proposal as identified in this decision letter, overall, the Secretary of State agrees with the Inspector at IR238 that the public benefits outweigh the identified less than substantial harm to the significance of the designated heritage asset, and that the proposal would secure the optimum viable use of the site (IR235). He therefore considers that the balancing exercise under paragraph 202 of the Framework is favourable to the proposal.”
Whatever we think of the Secretary of State’s reasoning in granting these permissions, let’s not give him credit for thereby speeding up the development process. These were both applications which had been resolved to be approved by Hounslow and Barnet respectively in 2021!
Finally, how about this for petty point scoring, in relation to the continuing political pawn which is the Mayor’s extended ULEZ scheme? The Secretary of State would like the Mayor to arrange for vehicles that are the subject of his scrappage scheme to be provided to Ukraine to help with its war effort. The Mayor’s position is that this is not within his legal powers. This is Mr Gove’s latest letter dated 21 December 2023 to the Mayor of London. I have no idea what the right answer is on this specific issue but in a year where there are too many real battle grounds around the globe, perhaps let’s try to avoid unnecessary domestic political battlegrounds? Even in an election year?
Simon Ricketts, 30 December 2023
Personal views, et cetera
PS It’s so often been the case that I’ve had some song going through my head when writing one of these posts that I thought as an end of year gift I would present to you this Spotify playlist – a track for each post this year – I’m sure you’ll be able to match them up…
See you in 2024.
From YouGov 9 November 2023 poll